Is Bashar Assad interested in making peace with Israel?

"The Assad regime?s order of priorities is clear: first of all, the regime?s stability, then Lebanon, and finally the return of the Golan Heights. If peace with Israel serves these goals, then Assad is interested. My assessment is that Bashar Assad will agree to acertain type of peace, on his terms.?

If Israel were to withdraw to the lines of June 4, 1967, and not demand a change of strategy from Damascus, would the result be a peace agreement?

"Those are Bashar Assad?s conditions. But they leave open the question of the security arrangements, the question of water and the question of the substance of the peace, which will be discussed only if negotiations are conducted. Eight years have passed since the failure of the previous negotiations, in Shepherdstown. Significant things happened in those eight years. The ties between Syria and Hezbollah on the one side, and between Syria and Iran on the other side are different from what they were in 2000. The Syrians lost much of their influence in Lebanon. Iran, which became Syria?s strategic prop, now has Damascus in a bear hug, in terms of weapons supplies, training and money. Thus Bashar Assad?s ability to sever himself from Iran and from Hezbollah is far more limited. The issue is more complicated."

In other words, it is harder to reach a peace agreement in 2008 than it was in 2000?

"Definitely. That doesn?t mean we should not try. But it is harder."

One difficulty is Assad?s problem of severing himself from Iran and Hezbollah. Are there other difficulties?

"The security arrangements discussed in 2000 referred to the threat of assault divisions. Today we also have to talk about the threat of surface-to-surface missiles. In 2000 the negotiations were held under American auspices, with American encouragement and with American readiness to compensate the sides for their concessions with alternative assets. Today the American approach is less enthusiastic."

Ehud Barak told Bill Clinton that the president of Syria wants to make peace with the president of the United States, not with the prime minister of Israel. Is that remark still valid today?

"It is. Today it is perhaps even stronger than it was in 2000. From the Syrians? point of view, peace with Israel is some sort of necessary evil. It is a means to achieve other goals. The Syrians? deep desire is to emerge from the almost leper-like political isolation in which they find themselves. Israel alone cannot open the gates of the world to Syria. That asset has to be supplied by someone else. Therefore Assad is preparing for the moment when the U.S. administration will change, when, he believes, Israel will give him what he wants."

Effectively, then, your assessment is that the peace process with Syria has a chance in 2009, not at this time.

"Absolutely."

Then what is the origin of the wave of peace reports in the past month?

"Assad authentically wants to reach a settlement with Israel on his terms. In contrast to other states on the axis of evil, which do not recognize Israel and do not want to enter into negotiations with Israel and recognize only the military option against Israel, Assad belongs to the camp that preserves both options. But Assad?s public statements about his readiness to enter into negotiations represent a short-term move that is related to other issues: an attempt to terminate the international tribunal that is investigating the assassination of [former Lebanese prime minister] Hariri; an attempt to overshadow the impression created by the American report about what was developed at Deir al-Zur in eastern Syria; and an attempt to avert escalation."

You are saying that Syria can be on the axis of evil, but also does not have to be there.

"I have been saying that for some time. Syria?s natural place is not in the radical Shiite axis of Tehran-Hezbollah-Hamas. The majority of the Syrians are Sunnis, not Shiites. Syria is a secular state. Therefore Syria is not a natural member of the axis of evil. The strategic circumstances brought it there. Syria has good reasons to make peace with Israel, and it can definitely move to the other camp if it gets the proper quid pro quo.
"Syria does not have the Sadat conception of 'no more war,' of an end to bloodshed, but if for Machiavellian strategic reasons, Syria's vested interests should dictate that it move to the peace axis, it will do so."

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